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Short-term inflation forecasting is an essential component of the monetary policy projections at the Central Bank of … Nigeria. This paper proposes four short-term headline inflation forecasting models using the SARIMA and SARIMAX processes and … compares their performance using the pseudo-out-of-sample forecasting procedure over July 2011 to September 2013. According to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488735
economic fundamentals. This study evaluated the predictive ability of the CCI in forecasting economic fluctuations in Nigeria … small. These results have important implications for the usefulness of CCI in planning and forecasting macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473528
Survey-based expectations are mostly used by monetary authorities for inflation forecasts and evaluation of the credibility of their inflation fighting policies. It is also an important link in the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This study examined the predictive ability of business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011473533
The study reports empirical evidence that artificial neural network based models are applicable to forecasting of stock … the artificial neural network based models outperformed the ARIMA based model in forecasting future developments of the … can be used as predictors for forecasting future values of the stock market returns given that the returns has memory of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011488820
forecasting volatility model with the most appropriate error distribution. The results suggest the presence of leverage effect … forecasting model that could guarantee a sound policy decisions. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489480
This paper presents forecasts of currency in circulation prepared for liquidity management at the Central Bank of Nigeria. Forecasts were produced using ARIMA, ARIMA with structural variables, VAR and VEC models. The performance of the forecasts was then evaluated under a rolling forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474285
This work considers the application of Periodogram and Fourier Series Analysis to model all-items monthly inflation rates in Nigeria from 2003 to 2011. The main objectives are to identify inflation cycles, fit a suitable model to the data and make forecasts of future values. To achieve these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474361
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