This paper contributes to the econometric literature on structural breaks by proposing a test for parameter stability in VAR models at a particular frequency amp;#969;, where amp;#969; amp;#8712; [0, amp;#960;]. When a dynamic model is affected by a structural break, the new tests allow for detecting which...

This paper studies the behaviour of crypto-currencies financial time-series of which Bitcoin is the most prominent example. The dynamic of those series is quite complex displaying extreme observations, asymmetries and several nonlinear characteristics which are difficult to model. We develop a...

In many environments, including credit and online markets, past records about participants are collected, published, and erased after some time. We study the effects of erasing past records on trade and welfare in a dynamic market where each seller's quality follows a Markov process and buyers...

This paper explores the possibility of cointegration existing between processes integrated at different frequencies. Using the demodulator operator, we show that such cointegration can exist and explore its form using both complex- and real-valued representations. A straightforward approach to...

In this paper we overview the literature on common features analysis of economic time series. Starting from the seminal contributions by Engle and Kozicki (1993) and Vahid and Engle (1993), we present and discuss the various notions that have been proposed to detect and model common cyclical...

Structural change affects the estimation of economic signals, like the underlying growth rate or the seasonally adjusted series. An important issue, which has attracted a great deal of attention also in the seasonal adjustment literature, is its detection by an expert procedure. The...

Extracting and forecasting the volatility of financial markets is an important empirical problem. Time series of realized volatility or other volatility proxies, such as squared returns, display long range dependence. Exponential smoothing (ES) is a very popular and successful forecasting and...

Time series observed at higher frequencies than monthly frequency display complex seasonal patterns that result from the combination of multiple seasonal patterns (with annual, monthly, weekly and daily periodicities) and varying periods, due to the irregularity of the calendar. The paper deals...

We introduce a variant of the smooth transition autoregression - the GSTAR model - capable to parametrize the asymmetry in the tails of the transition equation by using a particular generalization of the logistic function. A General-to-Specific modelling strategy is discussed in detail, with...

Many papers have highlighted that some macroeconomic time series present structural instability. The causes of these remarkable changes in the reduced form properties of the macroeconomy is a debated argument. In literature this issue is handled with three main econometric methodologies:...