This paper studies the legacies of wartime institutions, measured as rebelocracy, on the ability of households to cope with negative income shocks. Rebelocracy is the social order established by non-state armed actors in the communities they control. By providing public goods and a predictable...

Can democracy be taught? Are individuals more likely to embrace democratic values, to learn basic knowledge about political processes, and to engage the political process more effectively as a result of their exposure to donor-sponsored civic education programmes in emerging democracies? After...

Terrorist and other types of armed groups often exploit natural and human-made disasters and emergencies to advance their causes. This paper studies how some armed groups have responded to two recent global emergencies-climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. It examines the messaging and...

I study the causal effect of the foreign aid for development assistance —implemented by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID)— on the intensity of municipality-level armed conflict in Colombia, for the period 2009-2013. To address potential endogeneity biases, I use a...

While force eradication through aerial spraying has large social costs, there is no evidence of the unexpected consequences of alternative development programs. This paper suggests an unintended effect of the largest crop substitution program in the world on political violence exploiting data on...

I study the impact of rebel governance on economic development in rural Colombia. In 1998 the Colombian government created a 42,000 square km demilitarized zone (DMZ) to negotiate with FARC, Colombia's largest and oldest rebel group. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design, I exploit the...

We examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Kenya's foreign trade using quarterly trade data for the period 2019 to the second quarter of 2021. The exploratory analysis shows that growth of Kenya's merchandise exports remained resilient, largely supported by traditional exports of tea and...

The principal contribution of this paper is to investigate the relationship between policy uncertainty, caused by recent developments in international markets, and firms' trade margins for the largest economy in Africa: South Africa. In particular, using a unique database on the population of...

We show that the Russia-Ukraine-war-induced changes in the international price of wheat affected political violence in Asia. Using data from 13 countries and more than four million cell-level observations, we show that a higher wheat price increases political violence in areas that are more...