Similar Search Results

Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2007

Inflation differentials in the Euro area are mainly due to a sustained divergence of wage developments across the Euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth (Alvarez et al., 2006). We investigate convergence of inflation using unit labour cost (ULC) growth and applying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260899

Leading indicators of German business cycles: An assessment of properties

Fritsche, Ulrich; Stephan, Sabine - 2000

A reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324215

Declining Output Volatility in Germany : Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output … error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of … sudden break. The evolution of Germany's short-term real interest rate volatility coincides with the change of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274489

Structural unemployment and the output gap in Germany : evidence from an SVAR analysis within a hysteresis framework

Fritsche, Ulrich; Logeay, Camille - 2002

. Our identification of the model implies long-lasting output gaps for Germany – especially for the disinflation period of …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260640

Do leading indicators help to predict business cycle turning points in Germany?

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kouzine, Vladimir - 2002

Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260642

Do probit models help in forecasting turning points in German business cycles?

Fritsche, Ulrich - 2001

In this paper we used a data set constructed for a companion paper (Fritsche/Stephan, 2000) where we explored the leading indicator properties of different time series for the German business cycle. Now we test for the ability of different indicator series to forecast recessions by using a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260762