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Unoberserved components models for quarterly German GDP

Flaig, Gebhard - 2002

In this paper, an Unobserved Components Model is employed to decompose German real GDP into the trend, cycle and seasonal components and the working day effect. The most important findings are: 1) The growth rate of potential output declined from 4.2 per cent in the sixties to 1.4 per cent at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011409368

Estimating the output gap using business survey data : a bivariate structural time series model for the German economy

Flaig, Gebhard; Ploetscher, Claudia - 2000

This paper deals with the estimation of the output gap. We use uni- and bivariate unobserved components models in order to decompose the observed German GDP-series into trend, cycle and seasonal components. The results show that using the ifo business assessment variable as an indicator for the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781503

Input demand and the short- and long-run employment thresholds : an empirical analysis for the German manufacturing sector

Flaig, Gebhard; Rottmann, Horst - 2000

The concept of the employment threshold plays an important role in the public discussion of unemployment. The employment threshol d is defined as that growth rate of output which is necessary to keep employment constant despite the continuous rise in labour productivity. It is related to the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781535

Time series properties of the German monthly production index

Flaig, Gebhard - 2003

The production index is an important indicator for assessing the cyclical state of the economy. Unfortunately, the monthly time series is contaminated by many noisy components like seasonal variations, calendar and vacation effects. Only part of those nuisance components are explicitly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011514105

Unit Labor Cost Growth Differentials in the Euro Area, Germany, and the US: Lessons from PANIC and Cluster Analysis

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2007

Inflation differentials in the Euro area are mainly due to a sustained divergence of wage developments across the Euro area, and narrower differences in labour productivity growth (Alvarez et al., 2006). We investigate convergence of inflation using unit labour cost (ULC) growth and applying...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010260899

Asymmetric monetary policy effects in Germany

Tober, Silke; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

In a small structural model we find asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy in Germany depending on whether the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274488

Declining Output Volatility in Germany : Impulses, Propagation, and the Role of Monetary Policy

Fritsche, Ulrich; Kuzin, Vladimir N. - 2004

We analyse the decline in output volatility in Germany. A lower level of variance in an autoregressive model of output … error term variance (reduced impulses). In Germany the decline output volatility is due to a decline in the persistence of … sudden break. The evolution of Germany's short-term real interest rate volatility coincides with the change of the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010274489