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Counterfactual analysis in macroeconometrics : an empirical investigation into the effects of quantitative easing

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, Ron - 2012

This paper is concerned with ex ante and ex post counterfactual analyses in the case of macroeconometric applications where a single unit is observed before and after a given policy intervention. It distinguishes between cases where the policy change affects the model's parameters and where it...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009571104

What if the UK had joined the euro in 1999? : An empirical evaluation using a Global VAR

Pesaran, M. Hashem (contributor); … - 2005

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003109826

Forecast uncertainties in macroeconometric modelling : an application to the UK economy

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2000

This paper argues that probability forecasts convey information on the uncertainties that surround macroeconomic forecasts in a manner which is straightforward and which is preferable to other alternatives, including the use of confidence intervals. Probability forecasts relating to UK output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781626

Aggregation in large dynamic panels

Pesaran, M. Hashem; Chudik, Alexander - 2011

concludes with an empirical application to consumer price inflation in Germany, France and Italy, and re-examines the extent to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009010169

Sustainability of German fiscal policy and public debt : historical and time series evidence for the period 1850-2010

Burret, Heiko T.; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - 2013

default. Due to a multitude of large scale events in its past, Germany is far from being an exception: In fact, Germany … Germany's public finances against the standard theoretical background using a unique database, retrieved from multiple sources … historical perception of Germany as the poster child of European public finance. Given these corresponding breaks in time series …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009709423

Panel cointegration tests on the fiscal sustainability of German Laender

Burret, Heiko T.; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - 2014

newly compiled database covering the years 1950 - 2011. Unlike previous studies on Germany, we analyze fiscal sustainability …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388585

Fiscal sustainability of the German Laender : time series evidence

Burret, Heiko T.; Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A. - 2014

Germany using an unprecedentedly comprehensive fiscal dataset for the time period from 1950 to 2011 for West German Laender …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388609

Modeling fiscal sustainability in dynamic macro-panels with heterogeneous effects : evidence from German federal states

Feld, Lars P.; Köhler, Ekkehard A.; Wolfinger, Julia - 2018

In this paper, we extend Henning Bohn's (2008) fiscal sustainability test by allowing for slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence (CD). In particular, our econometric approach is the first that allows fiscal reaction functions (FRF) to capture unobserved heterogeneous effects from...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011822075