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Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States : a nonlinear approach

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018

We model U.S. post-WWII monthly data with a Smooth Transition VAR model and study the effects of an unanticipated increase in economic policy uncertainty on unemployment in recessions and expansions. We find the response of unemployment to be statistically and economically larger in recessions....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864417

Does conservatism matter? : a time series approach to central banking

Berger, Helge; Woitek, Ulrich - 1999

The empirical literature on central banking has found measures of central bank independence/conservatism to be …. We find that an increase in central bank conservatism leads to higher short-term interest rates and a more activist … economy, higher output and somewhat lower inflation. We also investigate the interaction between the central bank and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781685

Optimal central bank conservatism and monopoly trade unions

Berger, Helge; Hefeker, Carsten; Schöb, Ronnie - 2001

welfare gain associated with making the central bank less conservative than society, however if the outside option is in real … of central bank conservatism. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011397779

One country, one vote? : labor market structure and voting rights in the ECB

Berger, Helge; Hefeker, Carsten - 2004

distribution in the European Central Bank (ECB) council. We show that, in a model where labor unions internalize the inflationary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011402520

How should large and small countries be represented in a currency union?

Berger, Helge (contributor); Mueller, Till (contributor) - 2004

representation in a federal central bank addressing this question. Optimal voting weights reflect two opposing forces: the wish to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10002521678

Restructuring the ECB

Berger, Helge; Haan, Jakob de; Inklaar, Robert - 2003

size and voting power. One way to implement this principle is a rotation scheme for national central bank governors that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011511101

Economic policy uncertainty spillovers in booms and busts

Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Figueres, Juan … - 2018

We estimate a nonlinear VAR to quantify the impact of economic policy uncertainty shocks originating in the US on the Canadian unemployment rate in booms and busts. We find strong evidence in favor of asymmetric spillover effects. Unemployment in Canada is shown to react to uncertainty shocks in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011862894

Yield curve and financial uncertainty : evidence based on US data

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2019

How do short and long term interest rates respond to a jump in financial uncertainty? We address this question by conducting a local projections analysis with US monthly data, period: 1962-2018. The state-of-the-art financial uncertainty measure proposed by Ludvigson, Ma, and Ng (2019) is found...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012029082

Squeezing the interest rate smoothing weight with a hybrid expectations model

Castelnuovo, Efrem - 2003

Successful descriptions of short-term nominal interest rates inertial behavior have frequently been obtained with small scale macro models in which a Central Banker minimizes a loss function embedding an argument labelled as interest rate smoothing. The rationale for this argument is not...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011589555

Positive trend inflation and determinacy in a medium-sized new keynesian model

Arias, Jonas E.; Ascari, Guido; Branzoli, Nicola; … - 2018

This paper studies the challenge that increasing the inflation target poses to equilibrium determinacy in a medium-sized New Keynesian model without indexation fitted to the Great Moderation era. For moderate targets of the inflation rate, such as 2 or 4 percent, the probability of determinacy...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011864684