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Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We show how spending rules for oil income and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011386438
This paper adopts a VAR-GARCH approach to model the dynamic linkages between both the mean and the variance of macro … Gold and Silver. Volatility spillovers are bigger in size and affect most commodity returns. Both firstand second moment … financial assets, are sensitive to macro news (especially their volatility), and also suggest that the global financial crisis …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011346863
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009784945
and equities by using the VAR-DCC-GARCH model. Specifically, by accounting for the systematic patterns of commodity price … volatility, namely, seasonality and maturity effects for the pre-financialisation (1993-2003) and post-financialisation (2004 … futures' volatility before the financialisation period, open interest as a measure of liquidity has a negative effect after …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599014
volatility of carbon emissions, it is not surprising that crude oil and coal have recently become a very important research topic … causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. A likelihood ratio test … is developed to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which has valid regularity conditions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011658757
This paper analyses the informational efficiency of the WTI crude oil markets using a recently proposed quantitative measure for market inefficiency. The procedure measures the extent to which observed oil price behaviour deviates from the Random Walk benchmark which represents an efficient...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014490913
We analyze (frequency) connectedness and portfolio hedging among U.S. energy commodities from 1997 to 2023. We show that the total connectedness increased over time, likely due to the increasing financialization of energy commodities. It fluctuates with respect to (i) different investment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014456134
This paper examines the relationship between aggregate insider trading (AIT) and stock market volatility using monthly … specifically, a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model is estimated and Impulse Response analysis as well as Forecast Error Variance …-run increase in stock market volatility; this can be attributed to a combination of insiders manipulating the timing and content of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014304456
This paper investigates the US housing market from just before the Great Recession onward (2006-2019) and assesses the viability of stock-flow matching in generating the observed outcomes. The paper documents that the probability a house sells declines sharply after listing for two weeks....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013419282
The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow forasymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). Theasymmetric parametrization of the conditional variance encompassesthe quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework fortesting asymmetries in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011303289