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The virtue of complexity in machine learning portfolios
Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Zhou, Kangying - 2021
Contrary to conventional wisdom in nance, return prediction R2 and optimal portfolio Sharpe ratio generally increase with model parameterization, even when minimal regularization is used. We theoretically characterize the behavior of return prediction models in the high complexity regime, i.e....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800453
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Principal portfolios
Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Pedersen, Lasse Heje - 2020 - This version: June 8, 2020
We propose a new asset-pricing framework in which all securities' signals are used to predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on each security's own- signal predictability, assuming an equal strength across securities, our framework is flexible and includes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271188
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The existence of informationally efficient markets when individuals are rational
Muendler, Marc-Andreas - 2004
A rational-expectations equilibrium with positive demand for financial information does exist under fully revealing … average portfolio demand information in equilibrium if they can adjust portfolio size. More information diminishes the … endowments strongly differ from the average portfolio are worse off. Under fully revealing price, information market equilibria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451345
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Price impact of aggressive liquidity provision
Gençay, Ramazan; Mahmoodzadeh, Soheil; Rojček, Jakub; … - 2016
takers. During bursts, market makers no longer passively impound information from order flow into quotes-a departure from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516027
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How prediction markets can save event studies
Snowberg, Erik; Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2011
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124168
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A diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure
Gagliardini, Patrick; Ossola, Elisa; Scaillet, Olivier - 2016 - This version: July 2016
We build a simple diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure in large panel datasets. Given observable factors, the criterion checks whether the errors are weakly cross-sectionally correlated or share at least one unobservable common factor (interactive effects). A general version...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518993
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Deconstructing the Yield Curve
Crump, Richard K. - 2019
yield curve models that commit to a parsimoniously parameterized factor structure may be omitting important information …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889010
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Equity Volatility Term Premia
Van Tassel, Peter - 2020
This paper estimates the term-structure of volatility risk premia for the stock market. Realized variance term premia are increasing in systematic risk and predict variance swap returns. Implied volatility term premia are decreasing in risk initially, but then increase at a lag, predicting VIX...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012851215
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The Equity Risk Premium : A Review of Models
Duarte, Fernando - 2015
We estimate the equity risk premium (ERP) by combining information from twenty models. The ERP in 2012 and 2013 reached …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013017426
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On the nature of jump risk premia
Orlowski, Piotr; Schneider, Paul; Trojani, Fabio - 2019
We propose a model-free method for measuring the jump skewness risk premium via a tradingstrategy. We find that in the S&P 500 option market, the premium is positive and greater inabsolute terms than the variance premium. The trading strategy allows for examining the premiumin different holding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012051990