Showing 1 - 10 of 28
We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing … only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in … uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a Keynesianʺ region …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897551
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983206
public information. We argue that, when trading frequencies differ across traders, asset prices reflect investors' Higher … Order Expectations (HOEs) about the two factors that influence the aggregate demand: fundamentals information and liquidity …-rely on public information, the market displays high illiquidity, and low volume of informational trading; conversely, when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011130
We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496147
. Uncertainty, in contrast, increases the response. We rationalize our findings in a model of imperfect information. In the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012404549
This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011586267
We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014388605
We survey retail investors at an online bank to study beliefs about the autocorrelation of aggregate stock returns, and how these beliefs shape investment decisions measured in administrative account data. Individuals' beliefs exhibit substantial heterogeneity and predict trading responses to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012669739
We review methodological questions relevant for the design of information provision experiments. We first provide a … literature review of major areas in which information provision experiments are applied. We then outline key measurement … challenges and design recommendations that may be of help for practitioners planning to conduct an information experiment. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012240454
exposure to macroeconomic risk, consistent with sticky information models in which people are inattentive, but understand how …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011877783