Showing 1 - 10 of 129
A rational-expectations equilibrium with positive demand for financial information does exist under fully revealing … average portfolio demand information in equilibrium if they can adjust portfolio size. More information diminishes the … endowments strongly differ from the average portfolio are worse off. Under fully revealing price, information market equilibria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451345
This review paper articulates the relationship between prediction market data and event studies, with a special focus on applications in political economy. Event studies have been used to address a variety of political economy questions - from the economic effects of party control of government...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009124168
We propose a nonparametric method to study which characteristics provide incremental information for the cross section … incremental information for expected returns, and nonlinearities are important. We study the properties of our method in an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011888693
asset commonality in the spirit of CoVaR as defined by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2016). Based on granular information, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013373564
We study the effects of low short-term interest rates on the optimal portfolio allocation in Markowitz portfolios and Risk parity portfolios. We propose a measure of Portfolio Instability, gauging the amount of optimal portfolio shifts needed to respond to exogenous shocks to the expected risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278642
We examine the asymmetric impact of shocks to macroeconomic expectations and their underlying dispersion on equity risk premia across different market regimes. First, we rely on a two-state logit mixture vector autoregressive model and use Consensus Economics survey data on GDP growth,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014388605
We investigate the dynamics of prices, information and expectations in a competitive, noisy, dynamic asset pricing … only if traders over- (under-) rely on public information with respect to optimal statistical weights. Both phenomena, in … uncertainty, over-reliance on public information obtains if noise trade displays low persistence. This defines a Keynesianʺ region …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003897551
This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003983206
public information. We argue that, when trading frequencies differ across traders, asset prices reflect investors' Higher … Order Expectations (HOEs) about the two factors that influence the aggregate demand: fundamentals information and liquidity …-rely on public information, the market displays high illiquidity, and low volume of informational trading; conversely, when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011130
We study the impact of diverse beliefs on conduct of monetary policy. We use a New Keynesian Model solved with a quadratic approximation. Aggregation renders the belief distribution an aggregate state variable. Diverse expectations change standard results about a smooth trade-off between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496147