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Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2021

detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to … near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550202

Output effects of inflation with fixed price- and quantity-adjustment costs

Danziger, Leif (contributor) - 2005

With fixed costs of price and quantity adjustment, output effects of inflation depend on the elasticity of the firm's marginal real revenue. If the elasticity always exceeds minus unity, then output decreases with inflation, while if the elasticity is always less than minus unity, then output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003121028

What drives aggregate investment?

Bachmann, Ruediger; Zorn, Peter - 2013 - This Version: April 13, 2013

Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology …-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to … gauge their contribution to short-run investment fluctuations. We estimate an upper bound for the contribution of technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736762

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Westermann, Frank - 2001

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398919

Simultaneous causality in international trade

Weber, Enzo (contributor) - 2007

This paper proposes estimating causalities in bilateral international trade in simultaneous systems, including domestic and foreign GDP as well as mutual trade flows. Conventional macroeconomic theory mainly follows partial approaches like import functions or exportled growth. Focusing on the US...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003633581

The influence of the business cycle on mortality

Reichmuth, Wolfgang H. (contributor); … - 2008

We analyze the impact of short-run economic fluctuations on age-specific mortality using Bayesian time series econometrics and contribute to the debate on the procyclicality of mortality. For the first time, we examine the differing consequences of economic changes for all individual age...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003770803

The U.S. business cycle, 1867-1995: dynamic factor analysis vs. reconstructed national accounts

Ritschl, Albrecht; Sarferaz, Samad; Uebele, Martin - 2008

This paper presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 de- rived from diffusion indices. We employ a Bayesian dynamic factor model to obtain aggregate and sectoral economic activity indices. We find a remarkable increase in volatility across World War I, which is reversed...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003796122

Lee-Carter and the macroeconomy

Hanewald, Katja - 2009

Using data for six OECD countries, this paper studies the effect of macroeconomic conditions on the mortality index kt in the well-known Lee-Carter model. Significant correlations are found with real GDP growth rates in Australia, Canada, and the United States, and with unemployment rate changes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003796260

Real origins of the Great Depression : monopolistic competition, union power, and the American business cycle in the 1920s

Ebell, Monique (contributor); Ritschl, Albrecht (contributor) - 2007

Most treatments of the Great Depression have focused on its onset and its aftermath. In contrast, we take a unified view of the interwar period. We look at the slide into and the emergence from the 1920-21 recession and the roaring 1920s boom, as well as the slide into the Great Depression after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003422937

Appropriate fiscal policy over the business cycle : proper stimulus policies can work

Graves, Philip E. - 2010

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653412