Similar Search Results

Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2021

detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to … near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550202

Output effects of inflation with fixed price- and quantity-adjustment costs

Danziger, Leif (contributor) - 2005

With fixed costs of price and quantity adjustment, output effects of inflation depend on the elasticity of the firm's marginal real revenue. If the elasticity always exceeds minus unity, then output decreases with inflation, while if the elasticity is always less than minus unity, then output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003121028

What drives aggregate investment?

Bachmann, Ruediger; Zorn, Peter - 2013 - This Version: April 13, 2013

Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology …-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to … gauge their contribution to short-run investment fluctuations. We estimate an upper bound for the contribution of technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736762

Real wages over the business cycle : OECD evidence from the time and frequency domains

Messina, Julián; Strozzi, Chiara; Turunen, Jarkko - 2009

We study differences in the adjustment of aggregate real wages in the manufacturing sector over the business cycle …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831747

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Westermann, Frank - 2001

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398919

The cyclical behavior of equilibrium unemployment and vacancies revisited

Hagedorn, Marcus (contributor); … - 2008

Recently, a number of authors have argued that the standard search model cannot generate the observed business-cycle-frequency fluctuations in unemployment and job vacancies, given shocks of a plausible magnitude. We use data on the cost of vacancy creation and cyclicality of wages to identify...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636083

What do asset prices have to say about risk appetite and uncertainty?

Bekaert, Geert; Hoerova, Marie; Scheicher, Martin - 2009

Implied volatility indices should have information about risk parameters, once they are cleansed of the influence of normal volatility dynamics and macroeconomic uncertainty. Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003832589

Shocks and frictions in US business cycles : a Bayesian DSGE approach

Smets, Frank (contributor); Wouters, Rafael (contributor) - 2007

Using a Bayesian likelihood approach, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for the US economy using seven macro-economic time series. The model incorporates many types of real and nominal frictions and seven types of structural shocks. We show that this model is able to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003412157

Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons

Fornari, Fabio; Lemke, Wolfgang - 2010

We forecast recession probabilities for the United States, Germany and Japan. The predictions are based on the widely-used probit approach, but the dynamics of regressors are endogenized using a VAR. The combined model is called a 'ProbVAR'. At any point in time, the ProbVAR allows to generate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008688529

Inflation risk premia in the US and the euro area

Hördahl, Peter; Tristani, Oreste - 2010

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008746583