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Kilian, Lutz; Nomikos, Nikos K.; Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2021

detrended data for personal consumption expenditures and manufacturing output suggest that the U.S. economy has recovered to … near 90% of pre-pandemic levels as of March 2021, our structural VAR model shows that the component of manufacturing output …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012550202

Output effects of inflation with fixed price- and quantity-adjustment costs

Danziger, Leif (contributor) - 2005

With fixed costs of price and quantity adjustment, output effects of inflation depend on the elasticity of the firm's marginal real revenue. If the elasticity always exceeds minus unity, then output decreases with inflation, while if the elasticity is always less than minus unity, then output...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003121028

What drives aggregate investment?

Bachmann, Ruediger; Zorn, Peter - 2013 - This Version: April 13, 2013

Using firm-level survey data for the West German manufacturing sector, this paper revisits the technology …-driven business cycle hypothesis for the case of aggregate investment. We construct a survey-based measure of technology shocks to … gauge their contribution to short-run investment fluctuations. We estimate an upper bound for the contribution of technology …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009736762

Sectoral trends and cycles in Germany

Cheung, Yin-Wong; Westermann, Frank - 2001

We examine the comovements between the output indexes of three German sectors (manufacturing, mining, and agriculture …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011398919

Appropriate fiscal policy over the business cycle : proper stimulus policies can work

Graves, Philip E. - 2010

Fiscal policy has become quite controversial in the post-Keynesian era, the debate over the Obama stimulus package being a contentious recent example. Some pundits go so far as to take the position that macroeconomic theory has failed to meaningfully progress in terms of providing useful...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008653412

Investigating the U.S. oil-macroeconomy nexus using rolling impulse responses

Gronwald, Marc - 2009

of rolling impulse responses is applied and both the aggregate and the industry-level is considered. It is found that the … both subsample and industry-specifics. The results, furthermore, suggest that the Great Moderation can essentially be …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003857164

Trust in public institutions over the business cycle

Stevenson, Betsey; Wolfers, Justin - 2011

We document that trust in public institutions - and particularly trust in banks, business and government - has declined over recent years. U.S. time series evidence suggests that this partly reflects the pro-cyclical nature of trust in institutions. Cross-country comparisons reveal a clear...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011131

What should fiscal councils do?

Calmfors, Lars; Wren-Lewis, Simon - 2011

The paper analyses theoretically what role fiscal councils could play and surveys empirically the activities of existing councils. Case studies of the Swedish Fiscal Policy Council and the UK Office for Budget Responsibility are done. It is concluded that fiscal councils should be advisory,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009011182

The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions

Kilian, Lutz; Vigfusson, Robert J. - 2016

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011421672

Job creation tax credits, fiscal foresight, and job growth : evidence from U.S. states

Chirinko, Robert S.; Wilson, Daniel J. - 2016

This paper studies the effects of job creation tax credits (JCTCs) enacted by U.S. states between 1990 and 2007 to gain insights about fiscal foresight (alterations of current behavior by forwardlooking agents in anticipation of future policy changes). Nearly half of the states adopted JCTCs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011432544