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The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword...
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-of-sample forecasting ; financial ratios ; OECD countries …
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We assess the contribution of macroeconomic uncertainty -- approximated by the dispersion of the real GDP survey forecasts -- to the ex post and ex ante prediction of stock price bubbles. For a panel of six OECD economies covering 24 years, two alternative binary chronologies of bubble periods...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400661
In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 115 indicators to predict the housing prices and rents in 71 … tested in a framework of a quasi out-of-sample forecasting. Its results are quite heterogeneous. No single indicator appears …
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even more pronounced at longer forecasting horizons (the forecast accuracy gain as measured by the root mean squared … spatial dependence structure into regional forecasting models, especially, when long-term forecasts are made. …
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