We examine whether fiscal rules constrain incumbent governments to use fiscal policy for re-election purposes. Using data on fiscal rules provided by the IMF for a sample of 77 (advanced and developing) countries over the 1984-2015 period, we find that after the Global Financial Crisis political...

We re-examine the conventional view that to be successful, fiscal adjustments should rely on spending cuts and not on tax increases. We apply the Bai-Perron structural break filter instead of ad hoc rules to identify fiscal adjustments and their successfulness in 20 OECD countries. Our results...

This paper uses a Financial Stress Index (FSI) for 13 OECD countries to examine which variables can help predicting financial stress. A stress index measures the current state of stress in the financial system and summarizes it in a single statistic. We employ three criteria for indicators to be...

We estimate Taylor rule models for the euro area using Consensus Economics forecasts of inflation and output growth for the period 1998.6-2010.8. We first examine whether the recent financial crisis has affected ECB policies. Our results indicate that the ECB puts stronger emphasis on...

Wordscores uses word frequencies to extract information from texts with known policy positions. Wordscores uses this information to estimate the unknown policy positions of so - called virgin texts. We apply Wordscores to the ECB President's introductory statements following Governing Council...

Does the general public know what central banks do? Is this kind of knowledge relevant? Using a survey of Dutch households, we investigate these questions for the case of the European Central Bank (ECB). Our findings suggest that knowledge on the ECB's objectives is far from perfect. Both a weak...

We investigate to what extent the destination of exports and export composition affect the export performance of euro area countries, using a dataset on exports from euro area countries to their top 20 trade partners for the period 1980-2010. Our analysis shows that European integration has not...

Using an event study method, we examine how stock markets respond to the policies of the European Central Bank during 1999-2015. We use market prices of futures (government bonds) to identify surprises in (un)conventional monetary policy. Our results suggest that especially unconventional...

Using an event study approach, we examine financial markets' reactions to the publication of the ECB's Comprehensive Assessment of banks in the Euro area. Our results suggest that banks' stock market prices and CDS spreads generally did not react to the publication of the results of the...

This paper analyses the reforms in the architecture of EMU since the eruption of the euro crisis in 2010. We describe major weaknesses in the original set-up of EMU, such as lack of fiscal discipline, diverging financial cycles and competitiveness positions, and a lack of crisis instruments....