We test the degree to which presidential approval ratings are related to a series of economic indicators, controlling for the political scenario in Brazil. Results, from 1999M9 until 2010M5, show that unemployment and the minimum wage are the main variables that affect the ratings. There is also...

"This paper relaxes some key assumptions in the probabilistic approach to fiscal sustainability. First, the authors identify structural breaks over the sample period used to estimate the covariance matrix of the shocks to the debt ratios. Second, the assumption of normality of the shocks is...