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A data-driven selection of an appropriate seasonal adjustment approach
Webel, Karsten - 2016
Recent releases of X-13ARIMA-SEATS and JDemetra+ enable their users to choose between the non-parametric X-11 and the parametric ARIMA model-based approach to seasonal adjustment for any given time series without the necessity of switching between different software packages. To ease the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011452778
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Estimation of heterogeneous agent models : a likelihood approach
Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Posch, Olaf; Wang, Mu-Chun - 2020
We study the statistical properties of heterogeneous agent models. Using aBewley-Hugget-Aiyagari model we compute the density function of wealth and in-come and use it for likelihood inference. We study the finite sample properties of themaximum likelihood estimator (MLE) using Monte Carlo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012256501
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Assessing the uncertainty in central banks' inflation outlooks
Knüppel, Malte; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido - 2019
Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962843
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Measuring option implied degree of distress in the US financial sector using the entropy principle
Matros, Philipp; Vilsmeier, Johannes - 2012
We estimate time series of option implied Probabilities of Default (PoDs) for 19 major US financial institutions from 2002 to 2012. These PoDs are estimated as mass points of entropy based risk neutral densities and subsequently corrected for maturity dependence. The obtained time series are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009674908
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Disentangling economic recessions and depressions
Candelon, Bertrand; Metiu, Norbert; Straetmans, Stefan - 2013
We propose a nonparametric test that distinguishes “depressions” and “booms” from ordinary recessions and expansions. Depressions and booms are defined as coming from another underlying process than recessions and expansions. We find four depressions and booms in the NBER business cycle...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202869
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Nonparametric estimation in case of endogenous selection
Breunig, Christoph; Mammen, Enno; Simoni, Anna - 2017
This paper addresses the problem of estimation of a nonparametric regression function from selectively observed data when selection is endogenous. Our approach relies on independence between covariates and selection conditionally on potential outcomes. Endogeneity of regressors is also allowed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894721
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Testing missing at random using instrumental variables
Breunig, Christoph - 2017
This paper proposes a test for missing at random (MAR). The MAR assumption is shown to be testable given instrumental variables which are independent of response given potential outcomes. A nonparametric testing procedure based on integrated squared distance is proposed. The statistic's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011894725
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Beyond Cobb-Douglas : Flexibly Estimating Matching Functions with Unobserved Matching Efficiency
Lange, Fabian - 2020
the empirical literature estimating the matching function, commonly used to map unemployment and vacancies into hires …. First, we show how to non-parametrically identify the matching function. Second, we estimate the matching function allowing … for unobserved matching efficacy, without imposing the usual independence assumption between matching efficiency and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481928
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Complementarity and Aggregate Implications of Assortative Matching : A Nonparametric Analysis
Graham, Bryan S. - 2009
, potentially complementary, input fixed. We introduce a class of such reallocations -- correlated matching rules -- that includes … the status quo allocation, a random allocation, and both the perfect positive and negative assortative matching …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463788
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Stress testing German banks against a global cost-of-capital shock
Düllmann, Klaus; Kick, Thomas - 2012
This paper introduces a stress test of the corporate credit portfolios of 24 large German banks by a two-stage approach: First, a macro-econometric model is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase of the user cost of business capital for firms worldwide on three particularly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009509091