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Productivity and firm dynamics over the business cycle

Assefa, Abraham; Lapitskaya, Darya; Uusküla, Lenno - 2022

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013253091

Fiscal policy and stock prices in the United States

Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013186196

Economic theories and macroeconomic reality

Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun - 2021

Economic theories are often encoded in equilibrium models that cannot be directly estimated because they lack features that, while inessential to the theoretical mechanism that is central to the specific theory, would be essential to fit the data well. We propose an econometric approach that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792815

A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR : an updated algorithm

Mumtaz, Haroon - 2020

In this note we present an updated algorithm to estimate the VAR with stochastic volatility proposed in Mumtaz (2018 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012243290

Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States

Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2017

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011627039

Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations

Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2017

VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649164

A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR

Mumtaz, Haroon - 2018

This paper introduces a VAR with stochastic volatility in mean where the residuals of the volatility equations and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812167

Value at risk : proposals on a generalization

Schröder, Michael - 1996

The Value at Risk approach (VaR) is more and more used as a tool for risk measurement. The approach however has … shortcomings both from a theoretical and a practical point of view. VaR can be classified within existing concepts of risk … measurement: it is particularly interpretable as a special measure of shortfall risk. From that point of view VaR will be extended …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011622673

Bayesian predictive distributions of oil returns using mixed data sampling volatility models

Virbickaite, Audrone; Nguyen, Hoang; Minh-Ngoc Tran - 2023

This study explores the benefits of incorporating fat-tailed innovations, asymmetric volatility response, and an extended information set into crude oil return modeling and forecasting. To this end, we utilize standard volatility models such as Generalized Autoregressive Conditional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014252427

Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target

Diegel, Max - 2022

This paper analyzes the time-varying credibility of the Fed's inflation target in an empirical macro model with asymmetric information, where the public has to learn about the actual inflation target from the Fed's interest rate policy. To capture the evolving communication strategy of the Fed,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013472154