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Fiscal policy shocks and stock prices in the United States

Mumtaz, Haroon; Theodoridis, Konstantinos - 2017

This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011627039

The financial market effects of the ECB's asset purchase programs

Lewis, Vivien; Roth, Markus - 2017

The European Central Bank's asset purchase programs, while intended to stabilize the economy, may have unintended side effects on financial stability. This paper aims at gauging the effects on financial markets, the banking sector, and lending to non-financial firms. Using a structural vector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011712553

A generalised stochastic volatility in mean VAR

Mumtaz, Haroon - 2018

This paper introduces a VAR with stochastic volatility in mean where the residuals of the volatility equations and the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011812167

Fiscal multipliers of central, state and local government and of the social security funds in Germany : evidence of a SVAR

Hollmayr, Josef; Kuckuck, Jan - 2018

By applying a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) approach this paper estimates the effects of fiscal policy shocks of different government sub-sectors on aggregate GDP in Germany. From a general government perspective, the results show that besides investment, it is particularly changes in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011897960

Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form

Trenkler, Carsten; Weber, Enzo - 2012

This paper investigates whether codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed on VAR and VEC models via the so …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011489949

Inference in VARs with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form

Brüggemann, Ralf; Jentsch, Carsten; Trenkler, Carsten - 2014

We derive a framework for asymptotically valid inference in stable vector autoregressive (VAR) models with conditional … heteroskedasticity of unknown form. We prove a joint central limit theorem for the VAR slope parameter and innovation covariance … parameter estimators and address bootstrap inference as well. Our results are important for correct inference on VAR statistics …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011490564

The false start of disinflation : evidence from the major European economies

Rybacki, Jakub; Klucznik, Marcin; Sułkowski, Dawid - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014369410

Economic theories and macroeconomic reality

Loria, Francesca; Matthes, Christian; Wang, Mu-Chun - 2021

Economic theories are often encoded in equilibrium models that cannot be directly estimated because they lack features that, while inessential to the theoretical mechanism that is central to the specific theory, would be essential to fit the data well. We propose an econometric approach that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012792815

Routine-biased technological change and hours worked over the business cycle

Bock, Sébastien; Fontaine, Idriss - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012387105

Are fiscal VAR's non-fundamentalness easily reversible through the addition of informative variables?

Vonbun, Christian; Lima, Elcyon Caiado Rocha - 2021

The VAR/SVAR (Vector Autoregressive and Structural Vector Autoregressive) models are the cornerstone of the … General Equilibrium) models – the main theoretical tool for modern macroeconomics. Nevertheless, VAR models may be subject to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012486165