the socio-economic and political conditions rooted in that history of exceptional violence, inequality and injustice. A …

sovereign debt crisis have been driven mainly by weak growth prospects and heightened sovereign risk and to a lesser extent, by …

wealth. In this paper, we study the role of real estate markets in the transmission of bank flow shocks to output growth … municipalities on an exogenous basis. We find that output growth responds more to bank flow shocks in cities that are more exposed to … response of commercial property prices can explain most of this growth differential. When we unpack the transmission mechanism …

leverage. We find that (i) although the spreads correlate with the left tail of the conditional distribution of GDP growth …, they provide limited advanced information on growth vulnerability; (ii) nonfinancial leverage provides a leading signal for … the left quantile of the GDP growth distribution in the 2008 recession; (iii) measures of excess leverage conceptually …