This paper evaluates the challenges facing developing countries when there is uncertainty about the policy maker type. We consider a country characterized by volatile output, inelastic demand for fiscal outlays, high tax collection costs, and sovereign risk, where future output depends on the...

This paper examines the extent to which permanent terms-of-trade shocks have an asymmetric effect on private savings. The first part uses a simple three-period model to show that, if households expect to face binding borrowing constraints in bad states of nature, savings rates will respond...

This paper evaluates the relation between house prices and economic growth. Using a dataset that covers house prices for 19 countries from the first quarter of 1975 to the third quarter of 2013. We find that house price appreciations are positively associated with economic growth, while the...

We estimate the impact of the extensity of macroprudential policies on the correlation of the policy interest rates between the center economies (CEs, i.e., the U.S., Japan, and the Euro area), and the peripheral economies (PHs). We find a more extensive implementation of macroprudential...

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in macroeconomic forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in standard macroeconomic...

This paper analyzes the factors determining the effective payment on outstanding debt in the presence of partial defaults, and the feasibility of renewed investment. We show that the bargaining outcome, which determines the repayment, is dictated by the trade dependency, as measured by the...

This paper presents a model comparing the degree of asset class diversification abroad by a central bank and a sovereign wealth fund. We show that if the central bank manages its foreign asset holdings in order to meet balance of payments needs, particularly in reducing the probability of sudden...

The purpose of this study is to identify conditions under which renewed international. lending will benefit both the developed and the developing countries. Our analysis will evaluate how the presence of terms of trade adjust-rent and distorted credit markets affect the conditions for the...

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), the intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after...