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~accessRights:"free"
~isPartOf:"Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research"
~isPartOf:"Economic modelling"
~isPartOf:"Journal of econometrics"
~isPartOf:"NBER working paper series"
~isPartOf:"Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research"
~person:"Al-Azzam, Moh’d"
~person:"Fernandes, Marcelo"
~person:"Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia"
~person:"Gallant, A. Ronald"
~person:"Hong, Harrison"
~person:"Shiller, Robert J."
~subject:"Bayes-Statistik"
~subject:"Börsenkurs"
~subject:"CAPM"
~subject:"Dynamisches Gleichgewicht"
~subject:"Expectation formation"
~subject:"Spekulation"
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Al-Azzam, Moh’d
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ECONIS (ZBW)
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1
Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices
Chen, Joseph
-
2000
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074
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2
Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence
Shiller, Robert J.
-
1999
This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471792
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3
The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors
Campbell, John Y.
-
1986
A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476969
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4
Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
Campbell, John Y.
-
1986
In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477190
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5
Consumption Correlatedness and Risk Measurement in Economies with Non trade Assets and Heterogeneous Information
Grossman, Sanford J.
-
1981
The consumption beta theorem of Breeden makes the expected return on any asset a function only of its covariance with changes in aggregate consumption. It is shown that the theorem is more robust than was indicated by Breeden. The theorem obtains even if one deletes Breeden's assumptions that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478428
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6
The Determinants of the Variability of Stock Market Prices
Grossman, Sanford J.
-
1980
The most familiar interpretation for the large and unpredictable swings that characterize common stock price indices is that price changes represent the efficient discounting of "new information" It is remarkable given the popularity of this interpretation that it has never been established what...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478569
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7
Advisors and Asset Prices : A Model of the Origins of Bubbles
Hong, Harrison
-
2007
We develop a model of asset price bubbles based on the communication process between advisors and investors. Advisors are well-intentioned and want to maximize the welfare of their advisees (like a parent treats a child). But only some advisors understand the new technology (the tech-savvies);...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465142
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8
Rational Pessimism, Rational Exuberance, and Asset Pricing Models
Bansal, Ravi
-
2007
The paper estimates and examines the empirical plausibiltiy of asset pricing models that attempt to explain features of financial markets such as the size of the equity premium and the volatility of the stock market. In one model, the long run risks model of Bansal and Yaron (2004), low...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465547
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9
Asset Float and Speculative Bubbles
Hong, Harrison
-
2005
We model the relationship between asset float (tradeable shares) and speculative bubbles. Investors trade a stock with limited float because of insider lock-ups. They have heterogeneous beliefs due to overconfidence and face short-sales constraints. A bubble arises as price overweighs optimists'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467316
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10
Simple Forecasts and Paradigm Shifts
Hong, Harrison
-
2003
done better over the same period. This
theory
makes several distinctive predictions, which, for concreteness, we develop in … a stock-market setting. For example, starting with symmetric and homoskedastic fundamentals, the
theory
yields …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468685
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