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Consumer price adjustment under the microscope : Germany in a period of low inflation

Hoffmann, Johannes (contributor); … - 2006

We analyse the adjustment of retail and services prices in a period of low inflation, using a set of individual price … data from the German Consumer Price Index which covers the years 1998 to 2003. We strong find evidence of time- and state …-dependent price adjustment. Most importantly, the differences in unconditionalʺ sectoral price flexibility are found to be linked to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003339174

International transmission and monetary policy cooperation

Coenen, Günter; Lombardo, Giovanni; Smets, Frank; … - 2008

We use a version of the New Area-Wide Model (NAWM) developed at the ECB in order to quantify the gains from monetary policy cooperation. The model is calibrated in order to match a set of empirical moments. We then derive the cooperative and (open-loop) Nash monetary policies, assuming that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003636288

International evidence on sticky consumption growth

Carroll, Chris (contributor); Slacalek, Jirka (contributor); … - 2008

We estimate the degree of "stickiness" in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778438

Measuring business sector concentration by an infection model

Düllmann, Klaus (contributor) - 2006

Results from portfolio models for credit risk tell us that loan concentration in certain industry sectors can substantially increase the value-at-risk (VaR). The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether a tractable infection modelʺ can provide a meaningful estimate of the impact of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003326735

The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention : a nonlinear microstructural analysis

Reitz, Stefan (contributor); Taylor, Markt P. (contributor) - 2006

The coordination channel has been proposed as a means by which foreign exchange market intervention may be effective, in addition to the traditional portfolio balance and signaling channels. If strong and persistent misalignments of the exchange rate are caused by non-fundamental influences,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003304957

Real-time macroeconomic data and ex ante predictability of stock returns

Döpke, Jörg (contributor); Hartmann, Daniel (contributor); … - 2006

We report results on the ex ante predictability of monthly excess stock returns in Germany using real-time and revised macroeconomic data. Our real-time macroeconomic data cover the period 1994-2005. We report three results. 1) Real-time macroeconomic data did not contribute much to ex ante...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003304970

Forecasting the price of crude oil via convenience yield predictions

Knetsch, Thomas A. (contributor) - 2006

The paper develops an oil price forecasting technique which is based on the present value model of rational commodity …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003314736

Identifying the role of labor markets for monetary policy in an estimated DSGE model

Christoffel, Kai (contributor); Küster, Keith (contributor) - 2006

We focus on a quantitative assessment of rigid labor markets in an environment of stable monetary policy. We ask how wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process and derive monetary policy implications. Towards that aim, we structurally model matching frictions and rigid wages...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003339179

Sequential bargaining in a new-Keynesian model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage negotiation

De Walque, Gregory; Pierrard, Olivier; Sneessens, Henri R. - 2009

We consider a model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage bargaining where hours worked are negotiated every period. The workers' bargaining power in the hours negotiation affects both unemployment volatility and inflation persistence. The closer to zero this parameter, (i) the more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831761

Optimal Prediction Pools

Geweke, John; Amisano, Gianni - 2009

A prediction model is any statement of a probability distribution for an outcome not yet observed. This study considers the properties of weighted linear combinations of n prediction models, or linear pools, evaluated using the conventional log predictive scoring rule. The log score is a concave...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003831826

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