We develop a new targeted maximum likelihood estimation method that provides improved forecasting for misspecified linear autoregressive models. The method weighs data points in the observed sample and is useful in the presence of data generating processes featuring structural breaks, complex...

This paper provides a brief review of the connecting literature in management science, economics and finance, and discusses some research that is related to the three disciplines. Academics could develop theoretical models and subsequent econometric models to estimate the parameters in the...

We develop a multivariate unobserved components model to extract business cycle and financial cycle indicators from a panel of economic and financial time series of four large developed economies. Our model is flexible and allows for the inclusion of cycle components in different selections of...

We propose a novel multivariate GARCH model that incorporates realized measures for the variance matrix of returns. The key novelty is the joint formulation of a multivariate dynamic model for outer-products of returns, realized variances and realized covariances. The updating of the variance...

This paper presents results of a meta-regression analysis on empirical estimates of capital-energy substitution. Theoretically it is clear that a distinction should be made between Morishima substitution elasticities and cross-price elasticities. The former represent purely technical...

This study models the choices of Dutch railway users (aggregated at the 4 digit post code area) for access mode and departure railway stations. For each post code area a set of four access modes: car, public transport, bicycle and walking and a set three departure railway stations are...