We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate...

This paper analyzes the possibilities to relieve congestion using rewards instead of taxes, as well as combinations of rewards and taxes. The model considers a Vickrey-ADL model of bottleneck congestion with endogenous scheduling. With inelastic demand, a fine (time-varying) reward is equivalent...

There is little known about the effects of staggered-hours programs that affect workers' working schedules to mitigate peak congestion. We examine the effect of workers' morning start times on their wages for Germany. In contrast to previous work based on cross-section data, we demonstrate that...

This paper introduces a new class of observation-driven models, including score models as a special case. This new class inherits and extends the basic ideas behind the development of score models and addresses a number of unsolved issues in the score literature. In particular, the new class of...

Statistics Netherlands uses a state space model to estimate the Dutch unemployment by using monthly series about the labour force surveys (LFS). More accurate estimates of this variable can be obtained by including auxiliary information in the model, such as the univariate administrative series...

We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...

We propose a multiplicative dynamic factor structure for the conditional modelling of the variances of an N-dimensional vector of financial returns. We identify common and idiosyncratic conditional volatility factors. The econometric framework is based on an observation-driven time series model...

We assess the stability of the unemployment gap parameter using linear dynamic Phillips curve models for the United States. In this study, we allow the unemployment gap parameter to be time-varying such that we can monitor the importance of the Phillips curve over time. We consider different...

How do customer loyalty programs create switching costs? We estimate the demand effects of tier levels within a frequent flier program by exploiting discrete tier thresholds. We have two main results. First, members increase demand to reach a higher tier level just before the end of the calendar...

It has been documented that the gender pay gap strongly increases after the birth of the first child. We focus on Denmark and show that gender differences regarding commuting play an important role in explaining this. We offer 3 pieces of evidence. First, the gender pay and commuting gaps come...