This paper introduces a novel simulation-based filtering method for general state space models. It allows for the computation of time-varying conditional means, quantiles, and modes, but also for the prediction of latent variables in general. The method relies on generating artificial samples of...

We analyze the role of industrial and non-industrial production sectors in the US economy by adopting a novel multilevel factor model. The proposed model is suitable for high-dimensional panels of economic time series and allows for interdependence structures across multiple sectors. The...

We study the effect of borrowing constraints in an assignment model of the housing market. When constraints apply symmetrically to all households, these lead to lower prices but unchanged housing consumption. When households can invest their own wealth and may differ in tastes, borrowing...

An entrant and an incumbent engage in an investment portfolio problem where each chooses how to allocate its research funds across a rival market, where they compete with one another, and a non-rival market, where they do not interact. Allowing for acquisitions distorts both players' incentives...

We study the performance of two analytical methods and one simulation method for computing in-sample confidence bounds for time-varying parameters. These in-sample bounds are designed to reflect parameter uncertainty in the associated filter. They are applicable to the complete class of...