Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 337
Cover Image
Stochastic Infinite Horizon Forecasts for Social Security and Related Studies
Lee, Ronald D.; Miller, Timothy; Anderson, Michael W. - 2021
This paper consists of three reports on stochastic forecasting for Social Security, on infinite horizons, immigration, and structural time series models. 1) In our preferred stochastic immigration forecast, total net immigration drops from current levels down to about one million by 2020, then...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013230407
Cover Image
Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
Andersen, Torben G. - 2002
and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787458
Cover Image
The Term Structure of Forward Exchange Premia and the Forecastibility of Spot Exchange Rates : Correcting the Errors
Clarida, Richard - 2010
We present theory and evidence that challenges the view that forward premia contain little information regarding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012763403
Cover Image
Using School Choice Lotteries to Test Measures of School Effectiveness
Deming, David James - 2014
Value-added models (VAMs) are increasingly used to measure school effectiveness. Yet random variation in school attendance is necessary to test the validity of VAMs, and to guide the selection of models for measuring causal effects of schools. In this paper, I use random assignment from a public...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013060696
Cover Image
Are education and entrepreneurial income endogenous and do family background variables make sense as instruments? : a Bayesian analysis
Block, Jörn; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Thurik, Adriaan R. - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003973363
Cover Image
Family background variables as instruments for education in income regressions : a Bayesian analysis
Hoogerheide, Lennart; Block, Jörn; Thurik, Adriaan R. - 2010
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008736923
Cover Image
Information flows around the globe : predicting opening gaps from overnight foreign stock price patterns
Gooijer, Jan G. de; Diks, Cees G. H.; Gatarek, Lukasz T. - 2009
This paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011379456
Cover Image
Are education and entrepreneurial income endogenous and do family background variables make sense as instruments? : a Bayesian analysis
Block, Jörn; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Thurik, Adriaan R. - 2010 - Current version: February 2010
Education is a well-known driver of (entrepreneurial) income. The measurement of its influence, however, suffers from endogeneity suspicion. For instance, ability and occupational choice are mentioned as driving both the level of (entrepreneurial) income and of education. Using instrumental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011380037
Cover Image
Family background variables as instruments for education in income regressions : a Bayesian analysis
Hoogerheide, Lennart; Block, Jörn; Thurik, Adriaan R. - 2010 - Current version: July 2010
The validity of family background variables instrumenting education in income regressions has been much criticized. In this paper, we use data of the 2004 German Socio-Economic Panel and Bayesian analysis in order to analyze to what degree violations of the strong validity assumption affect the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011381026
Cover Image
New neural network methods for forecasting regional employment : an analysis of German labour markets
Patuelli, Roberto; Reggiani, Aura; Nijkamp, Peter; … - 2006
patterns in Germany. NNs are modern statistical tools based on learning algorithms that are able to process large amounts of … compares two NN methodologies. First, it uses NNs to forecast regional employment in both the former West and East Germany … differences in the size and time horizons of the data, the forecasts for West and East Germany are computed separately. The out …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011348710