We examine the impact of temporal and portfolio aggregation on the quality of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts over a horizon of ten trading days for a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds and alternative investments. The VaR forecasts are constructed based on daily, weekly or biweekly...

The focus of this article is using dynamic correlation models for the calculation of minimum variance hedge ratios between pairs of assets. Finding an optimal hedge requires not only knowledge of the variability of both assets, but also of the co-movement between the two assets. For this...

We present a model for hourly electricity load forecasting based on stochastically time-varying processes that are designed to account for changes in customer behaviour and in utility production efficiencies. The model is periodic: it consists of different equations and different parameters for...

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short-term interest rates. The set includes vector...

An early development in testing for causality (technically, Granger non-causality) in the conditional variance (or volatility) associated with financial returns, was the portmanteau statistic for non-causality in variance of Cheng and Ng (1996). A subsequent development was the Lagrange...

The purpose of the paper is to show that univariate GARCH is not a special case of multivariate GARCH, specifically the Full BEKK model, except under parametric restrictions on the off-diagonal elements of the random coefficient autoregressive coefficient matrix, provides the regularity...

We review the past 25 years of time series research that has been published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985; International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During this period, over one third of all papers_new published in these...

We propose a new framework for studying the evolution of heterogeneous beliefs in a dynamic feedback setting. Beliefs distributions are defined on a beliefs space representing a continuum of possible strategies agents can choose from. Agents base their choices on past performances, re-evaluating...

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...