In 2005, the German government announced a far-reaching fiscal adjustment program. This paper uses the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model to study its impact and explores options for addressing long-term pressures from population aging. The growth effects of the planned VAT increase are likely modest,...

This paper compares Canadian central government budget forecasting with forecasting by other industrial countries. While fiscal forecasting in Canada is governed by one of the strongest institutional frameworks, quantitative analysis suggests that budget projections of macroeconomic and fiscal...

Budget revenue forecasts should be best estimates of expected receipts. Often they are not. This paper analyzes the rationale for overstated revenue forecasts and derives conditions for intentional biases. A theoretical model demonstrates that overstated revenue forecasts can be the result of...

This paper applies a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance for South Africa with an emphasis on the effect of commodity and asset prices, and credit cycle. Results show that the cyclicality of tax revenue is mostly explained by the variations in...

This paper analyzes the cyclical fluctuations in South Africa in a cross-country context, and studies the impact of the output gap by controlling for export intensity, the debt burden, asset prices, and banking crises. Results show that South Africa’s revenue performance was outstanding...