We explore the Monte Carlo steps required to reduce the sampling error of the estimated 99.9% quantile within an acceptable threshold. Our research is of primary interest to practitioners working in the area of operational risk measurement, where the annual loss distribution cannot be...

This article reviews two leading measures of financial risk and an emerging alternative. Embraced by the Basel accords, value-at-risk and expected shortfall are the leading measures of financial risk. Expectiles offset the weaknesses of value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall. Indeed,...

A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the...

The application of industry 4.0 in banking presents many challenges, with several operational risks related to downtime and timeout services due to system failures. One of the operational risk management steps is to estimate the value of the maximum potential losses. The purpose of this study is...

This paper uses three methodologies for measuring the existence of systemic risk in the Colombian banking system. The determination of its existence is based on implementing three systemic risk measures widely referenced in academic works after the subprime crisis, known as CoVaR, MES and SRISK....

The cost of cybersecurity incidents is large and growing. However, conventional methods for measuring loss and choosing mitigation strategies use simplifying assumptions and are often not supported by cyber attack data. In this paper, we present a multivariate model for different, dependent...

In this paper, we employ 99% intraday value-at-risk (VaR) and intraday expected shortfall (ES) as risk metrics to assess the competency of the Multiplicative Component Generalised Autoregressive Heteroskedasticity (MC-GARCH) models based on the 1-min EUR/USD exchange rate returns. Five...

In this paper, we develop a framework for measuring, allocating and managing systemic risk. SystRisk, our measure of total systemic risk, captures the a priori cost to society for providing tail-risk insurance to the financial system. Our allocation principle distributes the total systemic risk...

This paper presents the first methodological proposal of estimation of the VaR. Our approach is dynamic and calibrated to market extreme scenarios, incorporating the need of regulators and financial institutions in more sensitive risk measures. We also propose a simple backtesting methodology by...