This paper provides closed-form formulae for computing the asymptotic standard errors of the estimated autocovariance and autocorrelation functions for stable VAR models by means of the d-method. These standard errors can be used to construct asymptotic confidence bands for the estimated...

This paper studies the role of long-term unemployment in the determination of prices and wages. Labor market theories such as insider-outsider models predict that this type of unemployed are less relevant in the wage formation process than the newly unemployed. This paper looks for evidence of...

Previous studies have interpreted the rise and fall of U.S. inflation after World War II in terms of the Fed's changing views about the natural rate hypothesis but have left an important question unanswered. Why was the Fed so slow to implement the low-inflation policy recommended by a natural...

This paper incorporates search and matching frictions in the labor market into a New Keynesian model. In contrast to the literature, the labor market activity takes place in the (Calvo-staggered) price-setting sector. Matching frictions lead price-setting firms to negotiate wage rates with their...

Calvo-style models of nominal rigidities currently provide the dominant paradigm for understanding the linkages between wage and price dynamics. Recent empirical implementations stress the idea that these models link inflation to the behavior of the labor share of income. Gali, Gertler, and...

This paper addresses the estimation of Phillips curve equations for the euro area while employing less stringent assumptions on the functional correspondence between price inflation, inflation expectations and marginal costs. Expectations are not assumed to be an unbiased predictor of actual...

A number of academic studies suggest that from the mid-1990s onwards there were changes in the link between inflation and economic activity. However, it remains unclear the extent to which this phenomenon can be ascribed to a change in the structural relationship between inflation and output, as...

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our...

A number of studies document the prominent role of global factors in domestic inflation developments (e.g. Borio and Filardo, 2007; Ciccarelli and Mojon, 2010). In this paper we investigate global dimensions of advanced economy inflation. We estimate open-economy Phillips curves for 19 advanced...

Using a small Bayesian dynamic factor model of the euro area we estimate the deviations of output from its trend that are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time...