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Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections
Banbura, Marta - 2014
This paper describes an algorithm to compute the distribution of conditional forecasts, i.e. projections of a set of variables of interest on future paths of some other variables, in dynamic systems. The algorithm is based on Kalman filtering methods and is computationally viable for large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013047977
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Climate Change Mitigation : How Effective is Green Quantitative Easing?
Abiry, Raphael; Ferdinandusse, M.; Ludwig, Alexander; … - 2022
We develop a two-sector incomplete markets integrated assessment model to analyze the effectiveness of green quantitative easing (QE) in complementing fiscal policies for climate change mitigation. We model green QE through an outstanding stock of private assets held by a monetary authority and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014078974
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Fiscal Sustainability using Growth-Maximising Debt Targets
Checherita-Westphal, Cristina D. - 2012
This paper highlights the importance of debt-related fiscal rules and derives growth-maximizing public debt ratios from a simple theoretical model. On the basis of evidence on the productivity of public capital, we estimate public debt targets that governments should try to maintain if they wish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013100835
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Towards Expenditure Rules and Fiscal Sanity in the Euro Area
Hauptmeier, Sebastian - 2010
The study looks at primary expenditure developments in the euro area, its three largest members and four “macro-imbalances” countries for the period 1999-2009. It compares actual expenditure trends with those that would have prevailed if countries had followed neutral policies based on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013136395
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The Impact of Extreme Weather Events on Budget Balances and Implications for Fiscal Policy
Lis, Eliza M. - 2009
This paper explores implications of climate change for fiscal policy by assessing the impact of large scale extreme weather events on changes in public budgets. We apply alternative measures for large scale extreme weather events and conclude that the budgetary impact of such events ranges...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013159926
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Fiscal Sustainability and Policy Implications for the Euro Area
Balassone, Fabrizio - 2009
In this paper we examine the sustainability of euro area public finances against the backdrop of population ageing. We … alternative indicators to quantify sustainability gaps for euro area countries. With respect to the policy implications, we assess … the appropriateness of different budgetary strategies to restore fiscal sustainability taking into account …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765709
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Fiscal Policy Responsiveness, Persistence and Discretion
Afonso, António; Agnello, Luca; Furceri, Davide - 2021
We decompose fiscal policy in three components: i) responsiveness, ii) persistence and iii) discretion. Using a sample of 132 countries, our results point out that fiscal policy tends to be more persistent than to respond to output conditions. We also found that while the effect of cross-country...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316466
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3-Step Analysis of Public Finances Sustainability : The Case of the European Union
Afonso, António; Rault, Christophe - 2021
We use a 3-step analysis to assess the sustainability of public finances in the EU27. Firstly, we perform the SURADF … sustainability is an issue in most countries, with a below unit estimated coefficient of expenditure in the cointegration relation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316526
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Interest Rate Effects of Demographic Changes in a New-Keynesian Life-Cycle Framework
Kara, Engin - 2010
model to discuss a number of macroeconomic scenarios for the euro area with a horizon of around 20 years. The main finding …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013135617
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Inducing Sparsity and Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models
Huber, Florian - 2019
Time-varying parameter (TVP) models have the potential to be over-parameterized, particularly when the number of variables in the model is large. Global-local priors are increasingly used to induce shrinkage in such models. But the estimates produced by these priors can still have appreciable...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012860054