Showing 1 - 10 of 42
This paper examines the robustness of the results found by Douglas and Popova (2008). They examine the electricity … forward premium in relation to gas storage inventories and find that, although electricity is not directly storable …, electricity forward premiums are lower when gas storage inventories are higher, especially on days with high temperatures. Douglas …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010731250
__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects … for forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011274348
This paper evaluates the impact of misinformation for inventory systems with product returns. If one could exactly know how much is going to be returned and when, one would certainly benefit from incorporating this perfect information a priori in the management of production, inventory, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837652
Dividing forecasts of brand sales by a forecast of category sales, when they are generated from brand specific sales-response models, renders biased forecasts of the brands' market shares. In this paper we therefore propose an easy-to-apply simulation-based method which results in unbiased...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837695
We introduce a heuristic bias-adjustment for the transaction price-based realized range estimator of daily volatility in the presence of bid-ask bounce and non-trading. The adjustment is an extension of the estimator proposed in Christensen et al. (2009). We relax the assumption that all...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837698
installed based information and provide several ways in which installed base forecasting can be used. We discuss cases of … installed based forecasting at four companies and list the issues involved. Moreover, we provide some models to assess the value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837719
Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837733
Experts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837737
-of-sample forecasting exercise to study money-income Granger causality, both linear and nonlinear, we believe is new to the literature. The … forecasting results do not suggest that money is nonlinearly Granger causal for output. In fact, they show that by allowing money … to nonlinearly Granger cause output, the forecasting performance of the STVECM is significantly worsened. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837854
(p) model for all forecast horizons and different AR models for different horizons. Representation, estimation and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837899