Showing 1 - 10 of 50
__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects … for forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011274348
pattern that is consistent with Hicks' composite-good theorem and that may be used for forecasting. To determine whether one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368144
from other aspects of the forecasting process, resulting in inefficient forecasting techniques and seemingly puzzling … forecasting process. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368254
Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well … constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in … recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368310
This paper provides an introduction to predictable forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modelling. The sources of both predictable and unpredictable forecast uncertainty are categorized. Key features of predictable forecast uncertainty are illustrated by several analytical models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368311
If forecasts of economic activity are to rely on preliminary data, the predictable component of the data revisions should be taken into account. This paper applies the Kalman filter to improve the forecast accuracy of published preliminary estimates of retail sales. Successive estimates of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368331
construct volatility forecasts, which compare favorably with some leading alternatives in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005368451
forecasting ability of three more sophisticated models (two GARCH models and a two-state Markov switching model) and two simple …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005372547
information that would be valuable in forecasting changes in exchange rates. The conclusions are limited, however, by the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005372565
installed based information and provide several ways in which installed base forecasting can be used. We discuss cases of … installed based forecasting at four companies and list the issues involved. Moreover, we provide some models to assess the value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837719