Showing 1 - 10 of 49
__Abstract__ The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility, accommodating leverage effects … for forecasting weekly and monthly horizons. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011274348
This paper examines disclosures by sell-side analysts when their institution has a lending relationship with the firms being covered. Lending-affiliated analysts’ earnings forecasts are found to be more accurate relative to forecasts by other analysts but this differential accuracy manifests...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009221524
This paper surveys recent developments in the evaluation of point forecasts. Taking West’s (2006) survey as a starting point, we briefly cover the state of the literature as of the time of West’s writing. We then focus on recent developments, including advancements in the evaluation of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321127
subset of variables common to the larger sets of variables included in the competing forecasting models. We consider an out … comparing the predictive content of credit spreads to growth in real stock prices for forecasting U.S. real GDP growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009321128
and forecasting, we specify a range of models of inflation, including: AR with constant trend; AR with trend equal to last …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009416058
This paper presents a 16-variable Bayesian VAR forecasting model of the U.S. economy for use in a monetary policy … setting. The variables that comprise the model are selected not only for their effectiveness in forecasting the primary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009358592
installed based information and provide several ways in which installed base forecasting can be used. We discuss cases of … installed based forecasting at four companies and list the issues involved. Moreover, we provide some models to assess the value …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837719
Forecasts of key macroeconomic variables may lead to policy changes of governments, central banks and other economic agents. Policy changes in turn lead to structural changes in macroeconomic time series models. To describe this phenomenon we introduce a logistic smooth transition autoregressive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837733
Experts may have domain-specific knowledge that is not included in a statistical model and that can improve forecasts. While one-step-ahead forecasts address the conditional mean of the variable, model-based forecasts for longer horizons have a tendency to convert to the unconditional mean of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837737
-of-sample forecasting exercise to study money-income Granger causality, both linear and nonlinear, we believe is new to the literature. The … forecasting results do not suggest that money is nonlinearly Granger causal for output. In fact, they show that by allowing money … to nonlinearly Granger cause output, the forecasting performance of the STVECM is significantly worsened. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010837854