This paper proposes a systemic risk index based on Functional Data Analysis (FDA), overcoming salient shortcomings of standard methodologies related to data usage, data sparseness, and high dimensionality issues. Using Mexican data, a set of systemic risk indexes are constructed and we show that...

This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that were available at the moment predictions are to be made. The study analyzes currency crises in eight Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, distinguishing an...

I develop a two-country DSGE model with global banks (financial intermediaries in one country lend to banks in the other country). Banks are financially constrained on how much they can borrow from households. The main goal is to obtain a framework that captures the international transmission of...

The COVID-19 pandemic not only generated real shocks affecting economic activity severely, but also a broad uncertainty that unleashed an extreme shock to financial markets. In this paper, we focus on the financial dimension of the pandemic from the viewpoint of an emerging market economy....

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981-2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and...

This paper analyzes the effects of the extraordinary measures implemented by the Bank of Mexico during the COVID-19 pandemic on financial conditions. For this purpose, we estimate a factoraugmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model for the period 2001-2021. Based on this model, we construct a...

We examine two approaches characterized by different tail features to extract market expectations on the Mexican peso-US dollar exchange rate. Expectations are gauged by risk-neutral densities. The methods used to estimate these densities are the Volatility Function Technique (VFT) and the...

This article examines changes in the exchange rate expectations associated with capital controls and banking regulations in a group of emerging countries that implemented these measures to control the adverse effects of sudden capital flows on their currencies. The evidence suggests that for...

We develop a two-country DSGE model with global banks to analyze the role of crossborder banking flows on the transmission of a quality of capital shock in the United States to emerging market economies (EMEs). Banks face a moral hazard problem for borrowing from households. EME's banks might be...

Different segments of a population affected by the same policy intervention may have different responses. We study the role of equilibrium effects on explaining these differences. Our case study is the government's extension of guarantees during the Great Recession to certain debt issuers. We...