Machine learning is increasingly applied to time series data, as it constitutes an attractive alternative to forecasts based on traditional time series models. For independent and identically distributed observations, cross-validation is the prevalent scheme for estimating out-of-sample...

Using administrative employer-employee data from Germany, we investigate the relationship between wages and past and present labor market conditions. Furthermore, we revisit recent findings of greater wage cyclicality of new hires. Overall, we find strong evidence for history dependent wages,...

Using employer-employee data from Germany, this paper analyzes the relationship between wages and past and contemporaneous labor market conditions. Specifically, we test the implications of implicit contract models (Beaudry and DiNardo, 1991) and an on-the-job search model (Hagedorn and...

We present a comprehensive simulation study to assess and compare the performance of popular machine learning algorithms for time series prediction tasks. Specifically, we consider the following algorithms: multilayer perceptron (MLP), logistic regression, naïve Bayes, knearest neighbors,...

In recent years, machine learning research has gained momentum: New developments in the field of deep learning allow for multiple levels of abstraction and are starting to supersede well-known and powerful tree-based techniques mainly operating on the original feature space. All these methods...

Although the quantitative relationship between employment cyclicality and wage cyclicality is central for the dynamics of macroeconomic models, there is little empirical evidence on this topic. We use the German AWFP dataset to document that wage cyclicalities are very heterogeneous across...

We document substantial cross-sectional heterogeneity of German establishments' real wage cyclicality over the business cycle. While wages of the median establishment are moderately procyclical, 36 percent of establishments have countercyclical wages. We estimate a negative connection between...