We study a number of large international military conflicts since World War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for the estimated likelihood that the conflict will result in a war. We find that in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the war likelihood tends to...

The pricing kernel is an important link between economics and finance. In standard models of financial economics it is proportional to the aggregate marginal utility in the economy. We first how that none of the three standard assumptions (completeness, risk aversion, and correct beliefs) is...

We show that in a consumption-based asset-pricing model with hyperbolic discounting leading to dynamically inconsistent time preferences value premium increases nonlin-early with the degree of discounting and thus affects cross section of returns. To test our model empirically, we relate the...

Estimates of agents' risk aversion differ between market studies and experimental studies. We demonstrate that the estimates can be reconciled through consistent treatment of agents' tendency for narrow framing, regarding integration of background wealth as well as across risky outcomes: Risk...

Institutional investors in equities tend to follow well-defined investment strategies, often based on factors such as size, value, momentum, quality, dividend yield and other stock characteristics. This paper explores the impact of capital flows between investment strategies on the cross-section...