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The virtue of complexity in machine learning portfolios
Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Zhou, Kangying - 2021
Contrary to conventional wisdom in nance, return prediction R2 and optimal portfolio Sharpe ratio generally increase with model parameterization, even when minimal regularization is used. We theoretically characterize the behavior of return prediction models in the high complexity regime, i.e....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012800453
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Principal portfolios
Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Pedersen, Lasse Heje - 2020 - This version: June 8, 2020
We propose a new asset-pricing framework in which all securities' signals are used to predict each individual return. While the literature focuses on each security's own- signal predictability, assuming an equal strength across securities, our framework is flexible and includes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271188
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Price impact of aggressive liquidity provision
Gençay, Ramazan; Mahmoodzadeh, Soheil; Rojček, Jakub; … - 2016
takers. During bursts, market makers no longer passively impound information from order flow into quotes-a departure from the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011516027
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A diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure
Gagliardini, Patrick; Ossola, Elisa; Scaillet, Olivier - 2016 - This version: July 2016
We build a simple diagnostic criterion for approximate factor structure in large panel datasets. Given observable factors, the criterion checks whether the errors are weakly cross-sectionally correlated or share at least one unobservable common factor (interactive effects). A general version...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011518993
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On the nature of jump risk premia
Orlowski, Piotr; Schneider, Paul; Trojani, Fabio - 2019
We propose a model-free method for measuring the jump skewness risk premium via a tradingstrategy. We find that in the S&P 500 option market, the premium is positive and greater inabsolute terms than the variance premium. The trading strategy allows for examining the premiumin different holding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012051990
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Arbitrage free dispersion
Orlowski, Piotr; Sali, Andras; Trojani, Fabio - 2018 - This version: August 10, 2018
We develop a theory of arbitrage-free dispersion (AFD) that characterizes the testable restrictions of asset pricing models. AFD measures Jensen's gap in the cumulant generating function of pricing kernels and returns. It implies a wide family of model-free dispersion constraints, which extend...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012003245
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Deep learning for asset bubbles detection
Bashchenko, Oksana; Marchal, Alexis - 2020
We develop a methodology for detecting asset bubbles using a neural network. We rely on the theory of local martingales in continuous-time and use a deep network to estimate the diffusion coefficient of the price process more accurately than the current estimator, obtaining an improved detection...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181227
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Asset allocation and risk taking under different interest rate regimes
Hermans, Lieven; Kostka, Thomas; Vassallo, Danilo - 2023
We study the effects of low short-term interest rates on the optimal portfolio allocation in Markowitz portfolios and Risk parity portfolios. We propose a measure of Portfolio Instability, gauging the amount of optimal portfolio shifts needed to respond to exogenous shocks to the expected risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014278642
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Conditioning the information in portfolio optimization
Sala, Carlo; Barone-Adesi, Giovanni - 2015
This paper proposes a theoretical analysis on the impacts of using a suboptimal information set on the three main … utility of terminal wealth, we prove the existence of an information premium between what is required by the theory, a … complete information set thus a fully conditional measure, and what is instead achievable by en econometrician. Searching for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506342
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Do proprietary traders provide liquidity?
Bergman, Nittai K.; Kadan, Ohad; Michaely, Roni; … - 2020
Whether proprietary traders provide or take liquidity, and how their behavior evolves over the business cycle and across stocks, remains at the center of an ongoing debate. Using a unique dataset from the NYSE, we document that proprietary traders concentrate their trades in large and liquid...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419705