This paper derives a new decomposition of stock returns using price extremes and proposes a conditional autoregressive shape (CARS) model with beta density to predict the direction of stock returns. The CARS model is continuously valued, which makes it different from binary classification...

Forex (foreign exchange) is a special financial market that entails both high risks and high profit opportunities for traders. It is also a very simple market since traders can profit by just predicting the direction of the exchange rate between two currencies. However, incorrect predictions in...

This study investigates the predictability of a fixed uncertainty index (UI) for realized variances (volatility) in the international stock markets from a high-frequency perspective. We construct a composite UI based on the scaled principal component analysis (s-PCA) method and demonstrate that...

Accurate prediction of stock market behavior is a challenging issue for financial forecasting. Artificial neural networks, such as multilayer perceptron have been established as better approximation and classification models for this domain. This study proposes a chemical reaction optimization...

Forecasting stock market returns is one of the most effective tools for risk management and portfolio diversification. There are several forecasting techniques in the literature for obtaining accurate forecasts for investment decision making. Numerous empirical studies have employed such methods...

Extreme learning machine (ELM) allows for fast learning and better generalization performance than conventional gradient-based learning. However, the possible inclusion of non-optimal weight and bias due to random selection and the need for more hidden neurons adversely influence network...

Accurate forecasting of changes in stock market indices can provide financial managers and individual investors with strategically valuable information. However, predicting the closing prices of stock indices remains a challenging task because stock price movements are characterized by high...

This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/ Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of...

In the feld of empirical asset pricing, the challenges of high dimensionality, non-linear relationships, and interaction efects have led to the increasing popularity of machine learning (ML) methods. This study investigates the performance of ML methods when predicting diferent measures of stock...