We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample,...

This paper develops an empirical framework to determine if the Asian currency crisis was contagious, and if so, whether the contagion was warranted or unwarranted. By applying a monetary-portfolio model to monthly data for 1991-1998, our results show that short-run variations in exchange rates...

This paper examines the performance of monetary policy rules when the economy finds itself in dark corners, when the real sector experiences a sequence of negative shocks from world demand and while the central bank faces prolonged low world interest rates on its foreign-exchange reserve...

Both empirical and theoretical studies suggest that currency attacks can occur even in a fixed exchange rate regime with sound fundamentals. Can mechanisms be designed to prevent such currency attacks? To address this question, we first need a theory of currency crisis. I argue that such a...

Both empirical evidence and theoretical discussion has long emphasized the impact of 'news' on exchange rates. In most exchange rate models, the exchange rate acts as an asset price, and as such responds to news about future returns on assets. But the exchange rate also plays a role in...

This paper investigates the effects of monetary and foreign exchange policies on the exchange rate in China. In the empirical model, a multiple number of monetary and foreign exchange policy instruments, such as the short-term interest rate, reserve requirement ratio, lending and borrowing...