We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is … inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form … beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since confict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals …

, relative productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with higher productivity, trade deficits or improved … terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through … the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms of trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of …

This paper argues that the empirical trade-growth relationship should be modelled using a dynamic panel data approach … than previous results. They confirm the existence of a strong causal effect of trade on growth but fail to find evidence … for trade as an independent factor of divergence. Hence, one cannot blame trade as such for the disappointing performance …

We work with a panel of bilateral trade flows from 1988 to 2002, exploring the influence of infrastructure …, institutional quality, colonial and geographic context, and trade preferences on the pattern of bilateral trade. We are interested … in threshold effects, and so emphasize those cases where bilateral country pairs do not actually trade. We depart from …