Over the past decade, China’s growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports … has widened substantially. Several economies within China’s supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment …-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in investment in China. This note quantifies potential global spillovers …

Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sectorâ … estate investment in China—though a low-probability event—would be sizable, with large spillovers to a number of Chinaâ … and the rest of the G20 economies, we find that a 1-percent decline in China’s real estate investment would shave about …