The European debt crisis in the early to mid 2010s brought to the fore the issue of household debt distress: in the countries affected, widespread over-indebdtedness resulted in serious financial and social challenges. The crisis was primarily a mortgage debt crisis, but in several cases, the...

The world has become more interconnected over the past few decades. Against this backdrop, economic and financial contagion following adverse shocks can have a severe impact on the global economy. How systemic can the effects of contagion be? What specific transmission channels are involved?...

In this paper, we study systemic non-financial corporate sector distress using firm-level probabilities of default (PD), covering 55 economies, and spanning the last three decades. Systemic corporate distress is identified by elevated PDs across a large portion of the firms in an economy. A...

This paper studies the transmission of macroprudential policies across both financial and non financial sectors of the economy. It first documents that tighter macroprudential regulations implemented in Europe over the period 2008-2017 lowered default risk not only in the financial, but also in...

We present an analysis of the sensitivity of household mortgage probabilities of default (PDs) and loss given default (LGDs) on unemployment rates, house price growth, interest rates, and other drivers. A structural micro-macro simulation model is used to that end. It is anchored in the balance...

We develop a mixed-frequency, tree-based, gradient-boosting model designed to assess the default risk of privately held firms in real time. The model uses data from publicly-traded companies to construct a probability of default (PD) function. This function integrates high-frequency,...

This paper analyzes the evolution of bank funding structures in the run up to the global financial crisis and studies the implications for financial stability, exploiting a bank-level dataset that covers about 11,000 banks in the U.S. and Europe during 2001?09. The results show that banks with...

This paper incorporates house price risk and mortgages into a standard incomplete market (SIM) model. The model is calibrated to match U.S. data and accounts for non-targeted features of the data such as the distribution of down payments, the life-cycle profile of home ownership, and the...

We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods-producing firms. In this context, due to high leverage of financial intermediaries, balance sheet disruptions in the financial sector are particularly detrimental for...

During periods of financial turmoil, increases in risk lead to higher default, foreclosure, and fire sales. This paper introduces a costly liquidation process for foreclosed collateral and endogenous recovery rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the financial accelerator....