on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made … policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time. -- inflation forecast ; NAIRU ; Phillips curve ; monetary policy ; Federal …

autoregressive model. In a high inflation regime the standard results from the literature obtain. In a low inflation regime output … shows no significant response to monetary policy while the inflation response is negative. The paper endogenously determines …

deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic … differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual … forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus …

shocks. This paper reassesses this view. We test the theory using data from World War II, which is by far the largest fiscal … variables in the data. Our main finding is that the theory quantitatively accounts for macroeconomic activity during this big …