on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made … policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time. -- inflation forecast ; NAIRU ; Phillips curve ; monetary policy ; Federal …

deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic … differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual … forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus …

We examine both the degree and the structural stability of inflation persistence at different quantiles of the … conditional inflation distribution. Previous research focused exclusively on persistence at the conditional mean of the inflation … rate. Economic theory, however, provides various reasons -for example downward wage rigidities or menu costs- to expect …