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Remittance flows and U.S. monetary policy

Machasio, Immaculate; Tillmann, Peter - 2021 - This version: October 27, 2021

Remittance inflows are driven by macroeconomic conditions in the home and the host economies, respectively. In this paper, we study the effect of U.S. monetary policy on remittance flows into economies in Latin American and the Caribbean. The role of Fed policy for remittances has not yet been...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012694427

The Fed's perceived Phillips curve : vidence from individual FOMC forecasts

Tillmann, Peter - 2009

on individual forecasts for unemployment and inflation submitted by each individual FOMC member, which was recently made … policymakers were aware of these changes in real-time. -- inflation forecast ; NAIRU ; Phillips curve ; monetary policy ; Federal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908176

Regime-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks : evidence from threshold vector autoregressions

Mandler, Martin - 2010

autoregressive model. In a high inflation regime the standard results from the literature obtain. In a low inflation regime output … shows no significant response to monetary policy while the inflation response is negative. The paper endogenously determines …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003950519

Strategic forecasting on the FOMC

Tillmann, Peter - 2010

deciding about interest rate policy, members individually formulate regular inflation forecasts. This paper uncovers systematic … differences in individual inflation forecasts submitted by voting and non-voting members. Based on a data set with individual … forecasts recently made available it is shown that non-voters systematically overpredict inflation relative to the consensus …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003962970

Communicating with many tongues : FOMC speeches and US financial market reaction

Hayo, Bernd; Kutan, Ali Mustafa; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2008

This paper studies the effects of FOMC communication on U.S. financial markets’ returns and volatility using a GARCH model over the period from 1998 to 2006. We build a new data set that includes information on all FOMC speeches, post-meeting statements, monetary policy reports and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003864447

FOMC communication and emerging equity markets

Hayo, Bernd; Kutan, Ali Mustafa; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

Using a GARCH model, we study the effects of Federal Funds target rate changes and FOMC communication on emerging equity market returns and volatility over the period 1998–2006. First, both types of news have a significant impact on market returns. Second, target rate changes are more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003852244

Does FOMC communication help predicting federal funds target rate changes?

Hayo, Bernd; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

We explain changes in the federal funds target rate using macroeconomic variables and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) communication indicators. Econometrically, we employ an ordered probit model of a Taylor rule to predict 75 target rate decisions between 1998 and 2006. We find, first, that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003852257

The impact of U.S. central bank communication on European and Pacific equity markets

Hayo, Bernd; Kutan, Ali Mustafa; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2009

We examine the effects of federal funds target rate changes and all types of FOMC communication on European and Pacific equity market returns using a GARCH model. We show that both types of news have a significant statistical and economic impact, but that the effects are not symmetric: target...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003852262

The Taylor rule and interest rate uncertainty in the US 1970-2006

Mandler, Martin - 2009

; inflation forecasts …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908161

Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data

Mandler, Martin - 2009

fell to unprecedented low levels in the 1980s and remained low while uncertainty about future output and inflation declined …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003908184