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This paper documents GDPNow, a "nowcasting" model for gross domestic product (GDP) growth that synthesizes the "bridge equation" approach relating GDP subcomponents to monthly source data with the factor model approach used by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2008). The GDPNow model forecasts GDP...
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forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation …
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returns and intradaily squared returns for forecasting horizons rangingfrom 1 to 10 days. For the daily squared returns we …
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In this paper we consider modeling and forecasting of large realized covariance matrices by penalized vector …
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forecasting errors in realized volatility are substantive. Even though returns standardized by ex post quadratic variation …
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explores various specifications of decompositions and various forecasting experiments. The result from these horse-races is … for richer forecasting specifications, the paper shows, using Bayesian model averaging techniques (BMA), that the …
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