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I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment costs. Rapid adjustments may cause productivity slowdowns. These slowdowns last longer when retooling is costly. The model explains why growth-rate disasters are more likely than miracles, and why volatility of growth relates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468120
When a takeover is announced, the sum of the stock-market values of the firms involved often falls, and the value of the acquirer almost always does. Does this mean that takeovers do not raise the values of the firms involved? Not necessarily. We set up a model in which the equilibrium number of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469704
. If the stock market provides a forecast of future events, then the recent dramatic upswing represents a rosy estimate … about growth in future profits for the economy. This translates into a forecast of higher output and productivity growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471876
In a model with multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria we add trade in assets that pay based on the realization of a sunspot. Asset trading restricts the equilibrium set in a way that raises welfare by eliminating equilibria with a high likelihood of disasters. When the probability of a disaster is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457853
Since 1968, the ratio of stock market capitalization to GDP has varied by a factor of 5. In 1972, the ratio stood at above unity, but by 1974, it had fallen to 0.45 where it stayed for the next decade. It then began a steady climb, and today it stands above 2. We argue that the IT revolution was...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471077
Product-recall data and information on stock-price reactions to recalls are used to estimate the value of reputation in a model in which product quality is not contractible. A recall is the result of a product defect that signals low effort. The recall triggers a reduction in the firm's product...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482229
Electricity and Information Technology (IT) are perhaps the two most important general purpose technologies (GPTs) to date. We analyze how the U.S. economy reacted to them. The Electricity and IT eras are similar, but also differ in several important ways. Electrification was more broadly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467592
Stock-market crashes tend to follow run-ups in prices. These episodes look like bubbles that gradually inflate and then suddenly burst. We show that such bubbles can form in a Zeira-Rob type of model in which demand size is uncertain. Two conditions are sufficient for this to happen: A declining...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468137
neoclassical theory predicts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468395
This paper studies optimal investment policies when the production function depends on capital of various vintages. In such an environment it is natural to ask whether the firm will invest in old-vintage capital at all. In this paper I derive such a condition. Predictably, investment in old...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464647