Showing 1 - 10 of 190
Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and, to the extent that it has, what changes in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466341
This paper examines old and new evidence on the predictive performance of asset prices for inflation and real output growth. We first review the large literature on this topic, focusing on the past dozen years. We then undertake an empirical analysis of quarterly data on up to 38 candidate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470546
approximating strict inflation-forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties. We also show that economies with more … general forecast-based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472657
stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target …. The conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472859
Inflation targeting is shown to imply inflation forecast targeting: the central bank's inflation forecast becomes an … explicit intermediate target. Inflation forecast targeting simplifies both implementation and monitoring of monetary policy …. The weight on output stabilization determines how quickly the inflation forecast is adjusted towards the inflation target …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473036
The `ideal' band pass filter can be used to isolate the component of a time series that lies within a particular band of frequencies. However, applying this filter requires a dataset of infinite length. In practice, some sort of approximation is needed. Using projections, we derive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471533
financial theory holds that equity should be a good inflation hedge since it represents a claim of real rather than nominal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478287
This paper shows how the interaction of tax rules and expected inflation can decrease substantially the share price per dollar of pretax earnings. The current analysis extends my earlier study [Feldstein (1978)] by recognizing corporate debt, retained earnings, and the role of diverse...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478744
We develop an asset-pricing model with endogenous corporate policies that explains how inflation jointly impacts real asset prices and corporate default risk. Our model includes two empirically grounded nominal frictions: fixed nominal coupons and sticky profitability. Taken together, these two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480968
The debate over including asset prices in the construction of an inflation statistic has attracted renewed attention in recent years. Virtually all of this (and earlier) work on incorporating asset prices into an aggregate price statistic has been motivated by a presumed, but unidentified...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470015